It's the end of the year, weaver. Do you stock up on silk this year?

At the end of the year, according to the rules of previous years, textile enterprises will store some raw materials at this time to prepare for the second year of the market, but in recent years due to public health reasons, global consumption downgrade and other issues, so that textile bosses have a barrier in mind, dare not stockpile raw materials. However, today, with the gradual weakening of various influences, is it suitable to stockpile raw materials this year? When is the right time?

To answer this question, let's first look at the recent trend of polyester and some expectations for the future.

1. Weak cost side

Some time ago, the price of polyester seems to be out of touch with the cost end, but recently this situation has been reversed back, after entering December, due to the weak crude oil and PTA end, the cost end of the support is weak, the polyester market also showed a weak market, the factory more stable quotation, and individual mainstream manufacturers have begun to tentatively reduce the price of polyester. In particular, today (December 6) most factories in Jiangsu have adjusted the price of polyester.

2, the demand side is insufficient

On the other hand, the demand for the textile market is not enough support, although some time ago driven by cold air, down jacket fabrics have improved, but in fact the market recovery is very limited, only a small number of people's carnival, and because this market involves the market single, more is to consume the hands of the inventory, the drive for polyester is not so obvious, The wait-and-see mood of weaving enterprises has not been broken up as a result.

In the later stage, under the situation that the cost side and the demand side are not obviously good, the polyester price will still be based on the profit shipment in the short term. But during this period of time, unless the delivery of profits just need to purchase, it is obviously not worth "hoarding".

It rose before it fell

There have also been articles analyzed before, in November, polyester and the cost of the price of the reason for the disconnect, a simple restatement is to want to make some profit margins, can only take advantage of the PTA fall a little higher, so as to slightly repair the polyester factory's own profits. After all, from the end of October, the whole loss of 1 month, which in turn, everyone has to think about ways to get money, and price increases are the most direct way.

So now the falling price, in fact, just fell in November rose part, in November regardless of the cost of the operation, so that polyester factory profits have been significantly increased, from the data point of view, by the end of November polyester factory profits have turned a loss to profit, the current polyester profit to 150D specifications for example: FDY at 154 yuan/ton, POY at 29 yuan/ton, DTY at 175 yuan/ton.

So now the polyester factory has enough profit space to make profit shipments, so the textile boss can do a "wait" party, kill in the end!

It is necessary to stock up on raw materials

It is still necessary to stockpile raw materials at the end of the year, it can be seen that although polyester production capacity is still expanding this year, the growth rate has slowed down significantly, and there are many projects to stop in the middle, superimposed the elimination of old production capacity, so in the supply side until next year the polyester factory may have support, if the oversupply situation is reversed, the polyester factory will have the confidence.

On the other hand, polyester factory profits in recent years have been hovering at the profit and loss line, otherwise there is no need to engage in this operation and the cost of the disconnection, the profit margin is small, it is natural to think that you can really increase the price, rather than such a price increase as now is to better yield profits, the supply reduction is definitely the best opportunity.

In short, the raw materials stored in the past year will be used in the second year anyway, and in recent years, the law of polyester factory "opening" has also occurred continuously, and appropriate hoarding does not hurt at all.

(Information source: Jindu)